Regional foresight and scenario modeling of socio-economic transformation: The case of the Kostanay Region, Kazakhstan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18335/region.v13i2.645Abstract
This study investigates the spatial and socio-economic transformation of the labour market in the Kostanay Region of Kazakhstan through the application of foresight and scenario modelling. The research aims to construct a conceptual and predictive framework of regional employment transformation that integrates statistical indicators, expert judgments, and technological trajectories within a spatial foresight perspective. A mixed quantitative–qualitative design was employed, combining regression modelling, SWOT analysis, and expert foresight sessions. Empirical data were derived from official statistics for 2018–2023 and complemented by ILO, OECD, and WEF reports. Expert panels (n = 42) from academia, business, and public administration contributed to validating the scenario assumptions. Multiple regression analysis revealed that Gross Regional Product, investment in fixed assets, and digitalization exert positive effects on employment, whereas migration balance negatively influences labour potential. Three alternative development scenarios were modelled up to 2039: Baseline, Innovation-Driven, and Green Growth. The innovation-driven trajectory ensures the highest productivity and export potential through technological modernization, while the green scenario emphasizes ecological efficiency and sustainability. The findings underscore that the integration of investment, technological, and human capital policies is critical for enhancing regional competitiveness and achieving sustainable socio-economic development under demographic constraints.
References
Acemoglu D, Restrepo P (2019) Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor. Journal of economic perspectives 33: 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.3
Alabugin A, Aliukov S, Khudyakova T (2022) Review of models for and socioeconomic approaches to the formation of foresight control mechanisms: A genesis. Sustainability 14: 11932. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141911932
Alzhanova F, Alibekova G, Dnishev F (2024) Spatial structure and dynamics of the scientific potential of Kazakhstan [in Russian]. Statistics, Accounting and Audit 2: 44–59. https://doi.org/10.51579/1563-2415.2024.-2.04
Autor D (2019) Work of the past, work of the future. In: American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, Volume 109. Nashville TN Press, Atlanta, GA, 1–32
Balatsky E, Ekimova N (2021) Regional and sectoral labor imbalances in Russia: Post-industrial challenges [in Russian]. Problems of Territory’s Development 25: 24–42. https://doi.org/10.15838/ptd.2021.4.114.2
BNS RK (2025a). Dynamic tables: Demographic characteristics of the population of Kostanay Region
BNS RK (2025b). Dynamic tables: Migration of the population of Kostanay Region
Branca T, Fornai B, Colla V, Pistelli M, Faraci E, Cirilli F, Schröder A (2022) Skills demand in energy intensive industries targeting industrial symbiosis and energy efficiency. Sustainability 14: 15615. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142315615
Brynjolfsson E, Mitchell T (2017) What can machine learning do? workforce implications. Science 358: 1530–1534. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap8062
Dingel J, Neiman B (2020) How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of public economics 189: 104235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104235
Donald W, Heijden B, Manville G (2024) (re) framing sustainable careers: Toward a conceptual model and future research agenda. Career Development International 29: 513–526. https://doi.org/10.1108/CDI-02-2024-0073
Duncan N, Wack P (1994) Scenarios designed to improve decision making. Planning Review 22: 18–46. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb054470
Eralina E, Alshanov R (2023) Trends in the development of the labor market of Kazakhstan under the conditions of economic transformation [in Russian]. Bulletin of Turan University 1: 36–48. https://doi.org/10.46914/1562-2959-2023-1-1-36-48
Felten E, Raj M, Seamans R (2021) Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses. Strategic Management Journal 42: 2195–2217. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3286
Godet M (2005) Regions facing their futures. Foresight 7: 21–27. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510590808
Goos M, Manning A (2007) Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. The review of economics and statistics 89: 118–133. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.118
Hanna R, Heptonstall P, Gross R (2024) Job creation in a low carbon transition to renewables and energy efficiency: A review of international evidence. Sustainability Science 19: 125–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01440-y
Ibraeva A, Aimagambetov E (2025) Models of the interaction between labor demand and supply in a regional context [in Russian]. Bulletin of Atyrau University named after Khalel Dosmukhamedov 77: 265–278. https://doi.org/10.47649/vau.25.v77.i2.23
ILO -- International Labour Organization (2021) World Employment and Social Outlook: The Role of Digital Labour Platforms in Transforming the World of Work. International Labour Office, Geneva
ILO -- International Labour Organization (2023) World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends. International Labour Office, Geneva
Intykbayeva S, Yessenova G, Alibayeva A (2022) Atlas of new professions as a landmark in the transformation of the modern labor market of Kazakhstan [in Russian]. Economic Series of the Bulletin of the LN Gumilyov ENU 4: 112–122. https://doi.org/10.32523/2789-4320-2022-4-112-122
Jamal A, El Nemar S, Sakka G (2025) The relationship between job redesigning, reskilling and upskilling on organizational agility. EuroMed Journal of Business 20: 474–492. https://doi.org/10.1108/EMJB-10-2023-0279
Kassymova S, Mustafayev K, Makysh M (2025) Analysis and assessment of sustainable competitiveness of regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan with weak economic potential. Economic Series of the Bulletin of the L.N Gumilyov ENU 2: 80–100. https://doi.org/10.32523/2789-4320-2025-2-80-100
Kazbekova D, Ogami A (2024) Updated approaches of Japan to occupational safety and health: A comparative analysis and opportunities for implementation in Kazakhstan [in Russian]. Social Policy and Innovation 2: 60–73. https://doi.org/10.70842/3079-0670-2024-2-60-73
Komarovsky V (2023) Modern migration flows in the Post-Soviet space [in Russian]. Social and Labor Research 1: 41–53. https://doi.org/10.34022/2658-3712-2023-50-1-41-53
Koshanov A, Chulanova Z (2021) Some approaches to assessing the state of human capital (the case of Kazakhstan) [in Russian]. Moscow University Bulletin. Series 6, Economics 4: 49–72
Makhambetov M, Keubassova G, Sagadatov R, Janissenova A (2024) Formation of human capital in the Kostanay Region [in Russian]. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan 410: 454–467. https://doi.org/10.32014/2024.2518-1467.817
Nurbek S, Sagatov Y, Sweeney J (2022) Skills technology foresight in practice: The case of the atlas of new professions of Kazakhstan. World Futures Review 14: 106–116. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567221104897
Nurlanova N, Alzhanova F, Dnishev F (2024) Methods and practice of assessing the level of inclusive regional development of Kazakhstan [in Russian]. Economy: Strategy and Practice 18: 109–126. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2023-4-109-126
Nurlanova N, Tleuberdinova A, Biryukov V (2025) Imbalances of economic and social development in the regions of Kazakhstan: Methods, assessment, recommendations [in Russian]. Statistics, Accounting and Audit 2: 21–34. https://doi.org/10.51579/1563-2415.2025.-2.02
Nyussupova G, Aidarkhanova G, Tokbergenova A (2022) Geography of human capital in the Republic of Kazakhstan: Regional comparison [in Russian]. Economy: Strategy and Practice 16: 160–173. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2021-4-160-173
Popper R (2008) How are foresight methods selected? Foresight 10: 62–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586
Sergeyeva A, Dan’shin A, Akbar I, Usmonov A, Ergashev A (2025) Urbanization and spatial transformation of cities in the Bukhara Region in Uzbekistan. Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies 13: 2550017. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345748125500174
Steinberg M, Zhang L, Mukherjee R (2025) Platform capitalisms and platform cultures. International Journal of Cultural Studies 28: 21–29. https://doi.org/10.1177/13678779231223544
Strelkovskii N, Komendantova N, Sizov S, Rovenskaya E (2020) Building plausible futures: Scenario-based strategic planning of industrial development of Kyrgyzstan. Futures 124: 102646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102646
Tsai T, Urmetzer F (2024) A decisional framework for manufacturing relocation: Consolidating and expanding the reshoring debate. International Journal of Management Reviews 26: 254–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12352
Westhoek H, Berg M, Bakkes J (2006) Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas. Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 114: 7–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.005
While A, Eadson W (2022) Zero carbon as economic restructuring: Spatial divisions of labour and just transition. New Political Economy 27: 385–402. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1967909
World Economic Forum (2020) The Future of Jobs Report 2020. World Economic Forum, Geneva
World Economic Forum (2023) The Future of Jobs Report 2023. World Economic Forum, Geneva
Yegenisova A, Koshimova B, Mambetova A, Sharipova A (2024) Development of regional standards for providing Mangystau Region with advanced personnel and the formation of an atlas of new professions [in Russian]. Bulletin of Atyrau University named after Khalel Dosmukhamedov 74: 121–130. https://doi.org/10.47649/vau.24.v74.i3.11
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Aigul Sergeyeva, Murat Makhambetov, Gaukhar Keubasova, Shynar Mendaliyeva, Raibek Sagadatov , Anatoly Stepanov , Miroslava Omirzakova
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
REGION is an open journal, and uses the standard Creative Commons license: Copyright We want authors to retain the maximum control over their work consistent with the first goal. For this reason, authors who publish in REGION will release their articles under the Creative Commons Attribution license. This license allows anyone to copy and distribute the article provided that appropriate attribution is given to REGION and the authors. For details of the rights authors grant users of their work, see the "human-readable summary" of the license, with a link to the full license. (Note that "you" refers to a user, not an author, in the summary.) Upon submission, the authors agree that the following three items are true: 1) The manuscript named above: a) represents valid work and neither it nor any other that I have written with substantially similar content has been published before in any form except as a preprint, b) is not concurrently submitted to another publication, and c) does not infringe anyone’s copyright. The Author(s) holds ERSA, WU, REGION, and the Editors of REGION harmless against all copyright claims. d) I have, or a coauthor has, had sufficient access to the data to verify the manuscript’s scientific integrity. 2) If asked, I will provide or fully cooperate in providing the data on which the manuscript is based so the editors or their assignees can examine it (where possible) 3) For papers with more than one author, I as the submitter have the permission of the coauthors to submit this work, and all authors agree that the corresponding author will be the main correspondent with the editorial office, and review the edited manuscript and proof. If there is only one author, I will be the corresponding author and agree to handle these responsibilities.
