3 This article was developed under the memorandum of partnership agreement between the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut , and the University of São Paulo Regional and Urban Economics Laboratory – NEREUS . The authors acknowledge financial support by the Brazilian Network for Global Climate Change Research – Rede CLIMA, and the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change. Flavio Vieira acknowledges financial support from CNPq. Eduardo A. Haddad acknowledges financial support from CNPq and Fapesp; he also thanks Princeton University and Rutgers University for their hospitality.